Two well respected oil analysts, Charles Maxwell and Peter Wells, provide recent updates to their peak oil thoughts. Wells in particular is interesting because he employs a bottom-up analysis similar to the Megaprojects works that is done on Wikopedia and by Chris Skrebowski. Wells is also a consultant to Toyota, an impressive credential.
Maxwell repeated his prediction of $300 oil in 2015. Wells thinks non-OPEC production has already peaked, that global production may peak in 2015, and like Maxwell he expects tight oil conditions and thus higher prices after the world economy recovers from the current downturn. But Wells qualifies this by pointing out, as I have also done many times, that if political conditions in Iraq were to change dramatically its production could potentially be increased to avoid global tightness. I’d also note potential for increases in Nigeria, which seem unlikely, and Libya. He does not seem to think a rapid expansion of supply is likely in Iraq and I would note that time is running short for Iraq even under the best of circumstances to increase production by a great amount much before 2015.
The essay that follows was originally posted on Energy Tribune. Thanks to Francis Swift for bringing it to my attention.
Posted on Nov. 26, 2008
By Robert Bryce
Gasoline’s Cheap Again, But Peak Oil Still Looms Large
Given the news from the past few months, it borders on the foolhardy to preach about the looming dangers of peak oil. Doing so seems a bit like warning about the possibility of drought while standing without an umbrella in the midst of a torrential downpour.
Indeed, the price of oil has plummeted from its July peak of $145 per barrel (for West Texas Intermediate at Cushing, Oklahoma) to under $80 by early October. The price collapse coincides with a big drop in oil demand. The Energy Information Administration now expects that U.S. consumption will fall by 4 percent this year. And credit-card issuer MasterCard estimates that gasoline demand during the first week in October fell by 9.5 percent compared to the year-earlier period. Indeed, it appears that the demand destruction associated with the rapid run-up in oil prices has for the moment obliterated all talk of oil going to $200 in the next year or two, or three. Over the longer term, the key question appears obvious: will demand destruction take the “peak” out of peak oil? (I’ll come back to that in a moment.)
The prospect of $50 oil looms. OPEC is in disarray. The Saudis have made it clear that they will defend the price that suits them, not the prices that Hugo Chávez wants. After all, they are spending tens of billions of dollars to bring on new spare capacity while the Venezuelans have essentially decided to sit on their hands and plunder PDVSA for as much cash as they can. Further, according to the latest projections from the International Energy Agency, Saudi Arabia will add 1.78 million barrels per day of new capacity by 2013. The Saudis are eager to get a return on their multi-billion dollar investments in the fields at Shaybah, Nuayyim, and Khurais.
All of these factors have led to a stock price collapse for essentially all oil and natural gas companies. Between mid-September and early October, shares in Chesapeake Energy, one of the biggest U.S. independents, fell to less than $17, from $40. During that same time, Exxon Mobil fell to just over $62, from $75.
And yet – and yet – some of the best minds in the energy business insist that this latest bear market is only baiting the trap for a huge price run-up that will likely come around 2015. And – despite all of the current turmoil – they may end up being right.
Before going further, I readily admit that I have, for several years, had a rather flippant attitude toward peak oil. When asked my opinion, I would generally respond: so what? My rationale being, we will only know that we’ve hit peak oil when the event has actually passed. And second, regardless of prices or supplies, we will only move away from oil when something else comes along that is cheaper/cleaner/more convenient, or all of the above. Thus, I’ve long felt that all the fretting about peak oil has been largely misplaced and that even if the peak were imminent, there would be little that the U.S. or any other country could do to avoid the difficult energy transitions that are looming.
That said, I’ve spent a good bit of time over the past couple of months talking to two of the sharpest analysts in the oil business: Peter Wells and Charley Maxwell. And both are convinced that peak oil is real, it’s coming, and the pain that will accompany its arrival will be severe.
Who are these guys? Wells has a Ph.D. in geology and three decades of experience in the global oil industry. He has worked extensively in the Middle East, Russia, West Africa, and Europe, and is an expert on the oil politics and geology of Iran and Iraq. He spent 12 years with Shell International, 4 with BP, and 6 with LASMO, the British oil and gas independent, where he led the company’s business development efforts in the Mideast, including Iran. In 2001, he helped start Neftex, a British oil consulting firm. Since 2005, he has been a consultant to Toyota, developing world oil supply and price forecasting models. I have known Wells since 2005 and heard him speak several times. His presentation on September 23 during a “sustainable mobility” seminar sponsored by Toyota in Portland, Oregon motivated me to write this piece.
Maxwell has been in the oil business for more than 50 years, beginning with a stint at Mobil Oil in 1957. In 1968 he began working as an energy securities analyst. Since 1999, he has been a senior energy analyst at Weeden & Co., a brokerage in Greenwich, Connecticut. Now 76 and showing no signs of slowing down, Maxwell has become one of the most quoted analysts in the business. In the September 8 issue of Barron’s, Maxwell predicted that due to ongoing demand growth, and lackluster supply additions that include the new Saudi fields at Khurais, Shaybah, and Nuayyim, the price of oil will reach about $300 per barrel by 2015. I have heard Maxwell speak several times since 2002, and talked to him at length on September 25, when he summarized his view of the future by saying, “We have gone on an unsustainable energy course.”
Of course, there is a multitude of other analysts who’ve been studying peak oil and making dire predictions, including Colin Campbell and Kenneth Deffeyes.
What sets Wells apart from the pack of alarmists is that he has done the deep and dirty analysis of individual field production data. In fact, Wells utilized field output info supplied by Denver-based consulting firm I.H.S., which owns one of the world’s most extensive oilfield databases. This same field-by-field data was utilized in 2006 by an I.H.S. subsidiary, Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), to come up with their study on future global oil production, which claimed that global output could reach an “undulating plateau” of 130 million barrels per day by 2030. The study concluded that the peak oil argument “is based on faulty analysis which could, if accepted, distort critical policy and investment decisions and cloud the debate over the energy future.” The study also claimed that the remaining global oil resource base is about 3.74 trillion barrels.
Wells took the same data and came up with a far different conclusion. He estimates that global liquids output will peak in about 2015 at no more than 100 million barrels per day. And that’s when things will get very interesting for automakers like Toyota and, of course, for the rest of us.
Wells’s work on peak oil began in 2003, which led him to publish a piece in the Oil and Gas Journal in 2004. Looking back at that initial work, Wells says that his prediction at the time was that the peak in global liquids output would likely come at a level of about 95 to 110 million barrels per day, somewhere between 2020 and 2035, “depending on OPEC reserves and OPEC’s willingness/ability to invest in new capacity.” When he began his consulting work for Toyota in 2005, Wells decided on a “bottom up” approach using the I.H.S. database and Neftex’s own data for the U.S. He then disaggregated all of the potential sources of oil – conventional crude, NGLs, tar sands, shale oil, biofuels, coal-to-liquids, etc. – so that he could look at their growth potential on a segment-by-segment basis. The I.H.S. data included field-by-field information as well as production information for the former Soviet Union, the U.S., all of the OPEC members, and all non-OPEC producers.
Maxwell repeated his prediction of $300 oil in 2015. Wells thinks non-OPEC production has already peaked, that global production may peak in 2015, and like Maxwell he expects tight oil conditions and thus higher prices after the world economy recovers from the current downturn. But Wells qualifies this by pointing out, as I have also done many times, that if political conditions in Iraq were to change dramatically its production could potentially be increased to avoid global tightness. I’d also note potential for increases in Nigeria, which seem unlikely, and Libya. He does not seem to think a rapid expansion of supply is likely in Iraq and I would note that time is running short for Iraq even under the best of circumstances to increase production by a great amount much before 2015.
The essay that follows was originally posted on Energy Tribune. Thanks to Francis Swift for bringing it to my attention.
Posted on Nov. 26, 2008
By Robert Bryce
Gasoline’s Cheap Again, But Peak Oil Still Looms Large
Given the news from the past few months, it borders on the foolhardy to preach about the looming dangers of peak oil. Doing so seems a bit like warning about the possibility of drought while standing without an umbrella in the midst of a torrential downpour.
Indeed, the price of oil has plummeted from its July peak of $145 per barrel (for West Texas Intermediate at Cushing, Oklahoma) to under $80 by early October. The price collapse coincides with a big drop in oil demand. The Energy Information Administration now expects that U.S. consumption will fall by 4 percent this year. And credit-card issuer MasterCard estimates that gasoline demand during the first week in October fell by 9.5 percent compared to the year-earlier period. Indeed, it appears that the demand destruction associated with the rapid run-up in oil prices has for the moment obliterated all talk of oil going to $200 in the next year or two, or three. Over the longer term, the key question appears obvious: will demand destruction take the “peak” out of peak oil? (I’ll come back to that in a moment.)
The prospect of $50 oil looms. OPEC is in disarray. The Saudis have made it clear that they will defend the price that suits them, not the prices that Hugo Chávez wants. After all, they are spending tens of billions of dollars to bring on new spare capacity while the Venezuelans have essentially decided to sit on their hands and plunder PDVSA for as much cash as they can. Further, according to the latest projections from the International Energy Agency, Saudi Arabia will add 1.78 million barrels per day of new capacity by 2013. The Saudis are eager to get a return on their multi-billion dollar investments in the fields at Shaybah, Nuayyim, and Khurais.
All of these factors have led to a stock price collapse for essentially all oil and natural gas companies. Between mid-September and early October, shares in Chesapeake Energy, one of the biggest U.S. independents, fell to less than $17, from $40. During that same time, Exxon Mobil fell to just over $62, from $75.
And yet – and yet – some of the best minds in the energy business insist that this latest bear market is only baiting the trap for a huge price run-up that will likely come around 2015. And – despite all of the current turmoil – they may end up being right.
Before going further, I readily admit that I have, for several years, had a rather flippant attitude toward peak oil. When asked my opinion, I would generally respond: so what? My rationale being, we will only know that we’ve hit peak oil when the event has actually passed. And second, regardless of prices or supplies, we will only move away from oil when something else comes along that is cheaper/cleaner/more convenient, or all of the above. Thus, I’ve long felt that all the fretting about peak oil has been largely misplaced and that even if the peak were imminent, there would be little that the U.S. or any other country could do to avoid the difficult energy transitions that are looming.
That said, I’ve spent a good bit of time over the past couple of months talking to two of the sharpest analysts in the oil business: Peter Wells and Charley Maxwell. And both are convinced that peak oil is real, it’s coming, and the pain that will accompany its arrival will be severe.
Who are these guys? Wells has a Ph.D. in geology and three decades of experience in the global oil industry. He has worked extensively in the Middle East, Russia, West Africa, and Europe, and is an expert on the oil politics and geology of Iran and Iraq. He spent 12 years with Shell International, 4 with BP, and 6 with LASMO, the British oil and gas independent, where he led the company’s business development efforts in the Mideast, including Iran. In 2001, he helped start Neftex, a British oil consulting firm. Since 2005, he has been a consultant to Toyota, developing world oil supply and price forecasting models. I have known Wells since 2005 and heard him speak several times. His presentation on September 23 during a “sustainable mobility” seminar sponsored by Toyota in Portland, Oregon motivated me to write this piece.
Maxwell has been in the oil business for more than 50 years, beginning with a stint at Mobil Oil in 1957. In 1968 he began working as an energy securities analyst. Since 1999, he has been a senior energy analyst at Weeden & Co., a brokerage in Greenwich, Connecticut. Now 76 and showing no signs of slowing down, Maxwell has become one of the most quoted analysts in the business. In the September 8 issue of Barron’s, Maxwell predicted that due to ongoing demand growth, and lackluster supply additions that include the new Saudi fields at Khurais, Shaybah, and Nuayyim, the price of oil will reach about $300 per barrel by 2015. I have heard Maxwell speak several times since 2002, and talked to him at length on September 25, when he summarized his view of the future by saying, “We have gone on an unsustainable energy course.”
Of course, there is a multitude of other analysts who’ve been studying peak oil and making dire predictions, including Colin Campbell and Kenneth Deffeyes.
What sets Wells apart from the pack of alarmists is that he has done the deep and dirty analysis of individual field production data. In fact, Wells utilized field output info supplied by Denver-based consulting firm I.H.S., which owns one of the world’s most extensive oilfield databases. This same field-by-field data was utilized in 2006 by an I.H.S. subsidiary, Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), to come up with their study on future global oil production, which claimed that global output could reach an “undulating plateau” of 130 million barrels per day by 2030. The study concluded that the peak oil argument “is based on faulty analysis which could, if accepted, distort critical policy and investment decisions and cloud the debate over the energy future.” The study also claimed that the remaining global oil resource base is about 3.74 trillion barrels.
Wells took the same data and came up with a far different conclusion. He estimates that global liquids output will peak in about 2015 at no more than 100 million barrels per day. And that’s when things will get very interesting for automakers like Toyota and, of course, for the rest of us.
Wells’s work on peak oil began in 2003, which led him to publish a piece in the Oil and Gas Journal in 2004. Looking back at that initial work, Wells says that his prediction at the time was that the peak in global liquids output would likely come at a level of about 95 to 110 million barrels per day, somewhere between 2020 and 2035, “depending on OPEC reserves and OPEC’s willingness/ability to invest in new capacity.” When he began his consulting work for Toyota in 2005, Wells decided on a “bottom up” approach using the I.H.S. database and Neftex’s own data for the U.S. He then disaggregated all of the potential sources of oil – conventional crude, NGLs, tar sands, shale oil, biofuels, coal-to-liquids, etc. – so that he could look at their growth potential on a segment-by-segment basis. The I.H.S. data included field-by-field information as well as production information for the former Soviet Union, the U.S., all of the OPEC members, and all non-OPEC producers.
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